Israeli Election Polls Show Netanyahu Far From Majority, Small Parties Struggle
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Two weeks before Israeli elections, polls show differing results for the Likud party and smaller factions. One poll by i24NEWS projects the Likud with 27 seats and Ofer Vinter's "Am Israel" party failing to pass the electoral threshold. A second poll by News 16 shows the Likud with only 18 seats but Vinter's party securing 4 seats. The results significantly affect the projected size of potential governing coalitions.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Two Israeli election polls show differing results for the Likud party and smaller factions.
- One poll projects the Likud with 27 seats, while another shows it with only 18 seats.
- Ofer Vinter's "Am Israel" party fails to pass the electoral threshold in one poll but wins 4 seats in another.
- Naftali Bennett's party is projected to receive 13 seats in both polls.
- The differing results impact the projected size of potential governing coalitions.
- Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party is projected to receive 21 seats in both polls.
Two weeks before Israeli elections, two new polls present a largely consistent picture of the political landscape, but reveal significant divergences regarding the Likud party and those vying to cross the electoral threshold. A poll by Direct Polls for i24NEWS shows the Likud securing 27 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party receiving 21, and Naftali Bennett's "Bayit Yehudi" getting 13. Otzma Yehudit and the Democrats are projected to win 9 seats each, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu 7 each, and Religious Zionism-Identity 6. Notably, Ofer Vinter's "Am Israel" party garners only 3.1% of the vote, failing to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold.
A separate poll by Maagar Mochot for News 16, surveying over 2,000 respondents, offers a different outlook at the top. While "Yashar!" again receives 21 seats, the Likud drops to just 18. Bennett's party gets 13 seats, the Democrats and Otzma Yehudit 9 each, United Torah Judaism and the Joint List 8, Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu 7, and Religious Zionism-Identity 6. The most dramatic discrepancies appear at the lower end of the spectrum. While i24NEWS' poll places Vinter outside the Knesset with 3.1%, the News 16 poll shows him receiving 4 seats. Similarly, the Handal-Zalicha party, which received only 2.2% in the i24NEWS poll, passes the threshold in the News 16 survey with 5 seats.
These polling differences directly impact the projected bloc sizes. According to i24NEWS, the coalition bloc would have 57 seats, the "change bloc" 50, and Arab parties 13. The News 16 poll indicates a coalition bloc, including "Am Israel," with 52 seats, the opposition with 50, Arab parties with 13, and Handal-Zalicha with an additional 5 seats.
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