New Polls Show Netanyahu Bloc Short of Majority Ahead of Elections
Translated & summarized from Arab48 by baba
Two new Israeli opinion polls released Tuesday show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc falling short of a majority, with two weeks remaining until the elections. The opposing bloc also failed to secure a majority, and the Arab lists are projected to win 13 seats in both polls. One poll by i24NEWS projected Netanyahu's bloc with 57 seats, while a Channel 16 poll showed them with 52 seats. The results vary significantly from other recent polls, indicating uncertainty in seat distribution and government formation.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Two new polls show Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc failing to reach a majority before the upcoming Israeli elections.
- The opposing bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties also did not secure an alternative majority in the polls.
- The i24NEWS poll projected Netanyahu's bloc with 57 seats, while a Channel 16 poll showed 52 seats.
- Arab lists are consistently projected to win 13 seats across multiple recent polls.
- The polls reveal significant variations in projected seat counts for individual parties and blocs.
Two new opinion polls released Tuesday evening indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc remains short of the majority needed to form a government, with the Knesset elections just two weeks away. Simultaneously, the opposing bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties has also failed to secure an alternative majority. The polls show differing estimates of the strength of both blocs and the impact of "swing" lists near the electoral threshold on seat distribution.
A poll by i24NEWS projected Netanyahu's bloc would win 57 seats, a decrease of three seats from the channel's previous survey. The opposing bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties was projected to win 50 seats, while the two Arab lists combined were expected to gain 13 seats, an increase of one. The Likud party led with 27 seats, followed by Gadi Eisenkot's Yachad party with 21, and Naftali Bennett's Bayahad party with 13. Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and Yair Golan's Democrats were each projected to get 9 seats.
Other projections included Yahadut HaTorah with 8 seats, Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Joint List with 7 seats each, and the United List and Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin's Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance with 6 seats apiece. The Am Israel party, led by Ofer Winter, was projected to fall below the 3.25% electoral threshold with 3.1% of the vote, while Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha's Reserve and Economics party received 2.2%. The decline in Netanyahu's bloc support in this poll follows the exit of Bennett's party from the projected Knesset entrants.
The i24NEWS poll surveyed 1,210 participants with a margin of error of 2.8%. In a separate poll by the newly launched Channel 16, Netanyahu's bloc was projected to win 52 seats, compared to 50 for the opposition and 13 for the Arab lists. The Reserve and Economics party was projected to win 5 seats, not counted in either bloc. Eisenkot's Yachad party led this poll with 21 seats, followed by Likud with 18 and Bennett and Lapid's Bayahad alliance with 13. Otzma Yehudit and the Democrats were projected to get 9 seats each, with Yahadut HaTorah and the Joint List receiving 8 seats apiece.
Channel 16, which presents itself as independent and centrist, surveyed approximately 2,000 people with a margin of error of 2.1%. These latest results contrast with polls released Monday by Channels 12 and 14, which gave Netanyahu's bloc 49 seats and 61 seats, respectively, while both predicted 13 seats for the Arab lists. Across the four recent polls, Netanyahu's bloc support ranges from 49 to 61 seats, a 12-seat difference, while all agree on 13 seats for the Arab lists, with significant variations in party strength and government formation prospects.
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