Israeli Election Polls Show Wide Discrepancy in Netanyahu's Bloc Strength

Three opinion polls released Tuesday evening, a week before the Israeli Knesset elections, revealed significant variations in the political landscape. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc of parties was projected to win between 50 and 62 seats. A poll by Channel 14, considered pro-Netanyahu, predicted the Likud party would secure 30 seats, Gadi Eisenkot's Yishar party 20, and Naftali Bennett's Bayahd party, Shas, and the Democrats each 9 seats. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yahadut HaTorah, and the Joint List were each projected to get 8 seats, while the Religious Zionism and Zehut alliance would receive 7 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu and the United List were expected to gain 6 seats each. This poll indicated Netanyahu's bloc would garner 62 seats, opposing parties 44, and the two Arab lists 14. The "Economy and Reserve" alliance, led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha, and Ofer Winter's "Amcha Israel" party failed to cross the electoral threshold, receiving 2.5% and 1.9% respectively.

A second poll by i24NEWS, also seen as right-leaning, projected Likud with 26 seats, Yishar with 20, and Bayahd with 12. Otzma Yehudit and the Democrats were each expected to win 9 seats, while Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, and the Joint List would get 8 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu, Religious Zionism, and Zehut were predicted to receive 7 seats, and the United List 6. In this scenario, Netanyahu's bloc would secure 58 seats. Winter's party was close to the threshold with 3.1%, while Hendel and Zelicha's alliance received 2.6%, both falling short of the 3.25% threshold.

A third poll from the newly launched Channel 16 presented a starkly different picture, forecasting only 18 seats for Likud, 12 fewer than Channel 14 and 8 fewer than i24NEWS. Yishar topped this poll with 21 seats, followed by Likud with 18, and Bayahd with 15. Otzma Yehudit, the Democrats, and the Joint List were each projected to win 9 seats. Yahadut HaTorah and Yisrael Beiteinu were expected to gain 7 seats, Shas and Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance 6, and the United List 5. This poll indicated Winter's party would cross the threshold with 4 seats, as would Hendel and Zelicha's alliance, also with 4 seats, contrary to the other two polls. Under Channel 16's projections, the coalition bloc would get 50 seats, the opposition 52, the Arab lists 14, and Hendel and Zelicha's alliance 4 seats, considered outside the main bloc calculations.

These diverging results come a week before the elections, with Netanyahu aiming to consolidate right-wing voters and prevent wasted votes on parties failing to pass the electoral threshold. The polls reflect a highly competitive election with contrasting views on the balance of power and the potential for forming the next government.