Israel Election Day: Three Scenarios for Next Government Formation

As Israelis head to the polls for the 26th Knesset elections on Tuesday, the political system is bracing for the post-election challenge of forming the next government. Three main scenarios are on the table, with the key question being not just which party will win the most votes, but which leader can assemble a coalition commanding Knesset confidence.

The first scenario envisions Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forming a right-wing government. This would rely on a bloc including Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism-Tkuma. If these parties secure at least 61 seats, forming the government would be numerically simpler, though coalition negotiations on policy and ministerial portfolios would still be necessary. Netanyahu has emphasized his commitment to a right-wing government and continuing judicial reform. Key negotiation points would include the conscription law, policy in Judea and Samaria, the relationship between the government and the judiciary, and the distribution of senior positions. This scenario could also involve bringing in a party outside the outgoing coalition, provided it agrees with the new government's foundational principles, contingent on campaign pledges and potential partners' willingness to cooperate.

The second scenario involves the opposition forming a government. This could be led by parties such as National Unity, headed by Gadi Eisenkot, or Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett. Such a government might comprise several parties from the outgoing opposition, but securing the necessary majority is more complex. One discussed possibility includes National Unity, Yamina, Yesh Atid, and Yisrael Beiteinu, potentially seeking support from Ra'am or external backing from the Joint List. However, this option faces significant internal divisions due to ideological gaps and differing stances on partnering with Arab parties. The identity of the prime ministerial candidate could also be a hurdle, with Eisenkot and Bennett vying for leadership, requiring other key players to decide on their support and conditions.

The third scenario, familiar from the political deadlock of 2019-2022, is a stalemate where no bloc can form a government, leading to another election. This could occur if smaller parties fail to cross the electoral threshold, if neither bloc achieves a majority, or if mutual boycotts prevent agreements even after seat allocations. Following the election, party representatives will recommend a candidate to President Isaac Herzog, who will task the individual he believes has the best chance of success. If these attempts fail, the constitutional process could lead to new elections. Ultimately, the current election may be decided not just by vote counts, but by the willingness of party leaders to cooperate after election day.