Houthis Advance on Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Threatening Global Shipping

The Iran-aligned Houthi movement is nearing control of Yemen's Red Sea coastline, a strategic advance that could significantly impact the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a vital global shipping lane. Recent Houthi gains include capturing the coastal city of Mokha and advancing towards the strategic islands of Zuqar and the Hanish archipelago, located off the Eritrean coast in the southern Red Sea. These developments follow intensified fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, with the Houthis shifting focus to Yemen's lengthy coast to bolster their position in disrupting maritime trade.

Sources within the Yemeni government reported on Thursday that the Houthis are attacking the strategic Hanish Islands. Meanwhile, government forces and their allies are reportedly moving south to the town of Dhubab, situated directly on the strait opposite Perim Island. Control of Dhubab and Perim Island is considered essential for dominating the strait. Earlier, four military sources confirmed the Houthis had seized the historic port city of Mokha.

The Bab el-Mandeb, known historically as the "Gate of Tears" due to its navigational hazards, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is a critical chokepoint, with its narrowest point being 29 kilometers wide, funneling traffic into two shipping channels separated by Yemen's Perim Island. The Hanish Islands to the north lie between the port cities of Hodeidah and Mokha, providing a vantage point for monitoring maritime traffic.

This strait is a crucial artery for global commerce, particularly for goods traveling from Asia to Europe via the Suez Canal. It is also vital for shipments from Egypt's SUMED pipeline and for goods, including Russian oil, heading to Asia. Any disruption to shipping through Bab el-Mandeb forces vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant time and cost to journeys.

Since late 2023, the Houthis have targeted shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb in solidarity with Palestinians amid the war in Gaza. This campaign has already led major shipping and oil companies, including Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, BP, and Frontline, to divert vessels around Africa, increasing shipping costs and transit times. Houthi dominance over the strait could also provide a significant advantage to Iran in its broader strategic competition with the United States, especially as oil product transit through Bab el-Mandeb accounts for approximately seven percent of global oil production.