Netanyahu Faces Political Headwinds as Election Looms

The Likud party is entering the upcoming elections in a precarious position, according to political analyst Matti Tuchfeld. He suggests Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned about the independent run of Ofer Winter, fearing it could fragment the right-wing bloc and potentially weaken Netanyahu's government. Tuchfeld noted that while Netanyahu can rely on long-standing allies like the ultra-Orthodox parties, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir, Winter's commitment to the bloc in a close election outcome remains uncertain.

A recent Maariv poll reflects these concerns, showing Likud stagnant at 20 seats. Winter's "Am Israel" party is polling at 2.8%, failing to cross the electoral threshold. In contrast, the union of Yoaz Hendel's reservists and Yaron Zelekha's Economic Party is narrowly projected to win four seats. This scenario could reduce Netanyahu's potential coalition to 47 seats, while the opposition could reach 57, potentially climbing to 61 if Hendel and Zelekha join them, even without Arab parties.

Tuchfeld highlighted that Netanyahu's strategy must extend beyond bolstering Likud, ensuring smaller parties within the right-wing bloc are not harmed. The potential for an "excess votes" agreement between Likud and Winter's party could signal Netanyahu's view of Winter as a key part of the bloc, though this remains to be seen. The fate of Avi Maoz's Noam party, currently below the threshold, is also uncertain, with Tuchfeld deeming its integration into Likud unlikely but a potential alliance with Smotrich's Religious Zionism possible.

Meanwhile, on the opposing side, Gadi Eisenkot's strength is growing in polls, while Naftali Bennett's support is declining. Tuchfeld also mentioned Benny Gantz's intention to run, joined by Aliza Bloch, despite recent party defections.