Israeli Election Lists Finalized Amid Shifting Alliances and Uncertain Outcomes

With 50 days until Israel's general election, the submission of party lists marks a critical juncture, particularly given the country's proportional representation system which necessitates coalition building. The "change bloc" must win outright, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's "right-wing bloc" can afford a tie, as an inconclusive result allows the incumbent to continue governing as a caretaker administration.

Netanyahu, a seasoned politician, has consolidated the right by encouraging maximum unity, aiming to prevent a "change bloc" victory. The inclusion of Ofer Winter's list, though polling near the electoral threshold, is seen as crucial for maximizing right-wing votes, potentially securing Netanyahu the desired tie. However, Netanyahu's own Likud party list faces criticism for its veteran, less popular candidates and unfulfilled expectations regarding new additions.

In contrast, the "change bloc" has experienced significant upheaval. An "unfortunate union" between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid drastically reduced their combined strength from over 30 seats to around 13-14. Lapid's list has been refreshed with strong candidates, but his past opposition performance has alienated some voters. Benny Gantz, once a leading figure, is now polling below the threshold, potentially costing the bloc crucial votes.

Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as the leading figure in the "change bloc," presenting an attractive list of candidates and securing a significant number of seats in polls. His party, "Yashar," features prominent figures and a notable number of women. Despite Eisenkot's political inexperience, his team has quickly adapted. Avigdor Lieberman's list has also made surprising placements, including individuals associated with the October 7th failures, and he is seen as a potential obstacle for Eisenkot in forming a government.

The ultra-Orthodox parties saw internal shifts with the ousting of senior figures, but their bloc is expected to remain aligned with Netanyahu. The Arab parties' joint list has strengthened, polling around 12 seats. Polls indicate a very close election, with the "right-wing bloc" garnering 50-53 seats and the "center-left bloc" between 52-57, leaving the outcome and the next prime minister uncertain.