Netanyahu Loses Grip on Right-Wing Bloc Ahead of Elections

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing significant challenges in unifying the right-wing political bloc ahead of the upcoming elections, a stark contrast to his successful consolidation of these parties four years ago. In the previous election cycle, Netanyahu skillfully merged smaller parties, including those led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, ensuring no votes were wasted and contributing to the opposition's significant loss of mandates. This time, however, Netanyahu appears to have lost control over the bloc's consolidation.

Recent events highlight this disarray. Ben-Gvir, citing a poll commissioned from an American surveyor, indicated that running alone would yield him 11 seats, while a joint list with Smotrich would drop them to seven. Ben-Gvir presented this to Netanyahu, who reportedly expressed concern about Smotrich's potential to siphon votes, suggesting Ben-Gvir "reserve" a spot for Smotrich on his list. Ben-Gvir countered by suggesting Netanyahu reserve a spot for Smotrich, but Netanyahu refused, stating he needed "moderate people" on his list. Following a public exchange of messages, Ben-Gvir announced he would run independently, declaring he would no longer be taken advantage of by Netanyahu.

With Ben-Gvir opting to run alone, Smotrich is now pursuing "Option B" to cross the electoral threshold. His own party, particularly after the inclusion of Ofer Winter, is polling below the required percentage. Reports suggest Smotrich may announce a joint run with Moshe Feiglin soon, a move that polls indicate would place them above the threshold. The inclusion of Winter in a joint list with Smotrich, however, would reportedly push them below the threshold.

Ofer Winter, who launched his party "Am Israel" with high expectations and initial poll numbers suggesting significant support, has seen his numbers dwindle to around the electoral threshold, causing concern for both Winter and Netanyahu. Netanyahu's diminished influence means he struggles to enforce unity within the bloc, with both Ben-Gvir and Winter not adhering to his directives. The situation is further complicated by internal strife within Netanyahu's Likud party, specifically a dispute with MK Tali Gottlieb over her placement on the party list.