Netanyahu Faces Right-Wing Vote Loss as Up to 25 Mandates Drift Away
Ahead of the upcoming elections, Benjamin Netanyahu and right-wing parties including Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit are grappling with a significant challenge: an estimated 15 to 25 right-wing mandates are currently undecided or refusing to support them. This situation has created uncertainty about how these votes will be distributed if the current political landscape remains unchanged, with some voters potentially shifting to opposition parties disguised as right-wing factions. As a result, recent polls are considered unreliable due to voter indecision and confusion.
The rightward shift in Israeli public opinion following the October 7 terror attacks and ensuing war is rooted in three main areas: tradition and Judaism, a hardline security stance with zero tolerance for Arab enemies, and strong support for settlements in Judea and Samaria with rejection of territorial concessions. While the current Knesset has 68 mandates aligned with these values, estimates suggest this number should be over 70 or even 75 today. However, polls show the opposite trend, with the best poll giving these parties only 62 mandates.
Surveys and party analyses reveal that many right-wing voters are deterred by the composition of the Likud list and its alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties, dissatisfaction with the government's handling of the October 7 disaster, the high cost of living, and disappointment over failed judicial reforms. Opposition figures such as Gadi Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman are seen as left-leaning or unreliable by right-wing voters, further complicating efforts to consolidate the right-wing bloc.
Netanyahu is attempting to counter these challenges by securing unprecedented eight reserved spots on the Likud list to allow flexibility and adjustments. He is also pushing procedural changes within the party to strengthen his control. Meanwhile, internal party rivalries, particularly involving David Bitan and Haim Katz, have intensified but ultimately strengthened Netanyahu's position. Netanyahu also distances himself from opposition figures and is wary of a new right-wing party that could split votes and risk falling below the electoral threshold.
The prime minister is also working to reassure right-wing voters about the coalition's ultra-Orthodox component, emphasizing strict measures such as detaining yeshiva students who refuse military service. However, skepticism remains among right-wing voters about the coalition's reliability. The political landscape remains fluid, with Netanyahu seeking to unify the right-wing camp while managing internal party dynamics and voter doubts ahead of the elections.
