Poll Shows Declines for Netanyahu's Likud and Right-Wing Parties

A recent poll by Channel 12 News indicates a significant drop in projected mandates for several Israeli parties, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and the far-right Otzma Yehudit.

Within less than a month, the "change bloc" of opposition parties has weakened from 70 to 66 projected mandates. Specifically, the Likud party has lost three mandates, and Otzma Yehudit has also dropped three mandates. The "Yesh Atid" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, has seen a decrease of two mandates, and the "Together" party, headed by Naftali Bennett, has fallen by two to three mandates.

The entry of Ofer Winter's new party, "Am Israel," and the "Reservists-Economic" alliance (led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zehlikah) into the political landscape appears to be reshaping the electoral map. The "Reservists-Economic" list, for the first time, has crossed the electoral threshold, securing four mandates in the latest poll. This new list, along with Winter's party, has contributed to the decline of both opposition and coalition parties.

The poll also highlights a rise in support for Arab parties, which collectively now hold 12 mandates, contributing to the weakening of the Zionist parties within the "change bloc." The Likud's decline, from a high of 23 mandates to 20, is attributed partly to Winter's party entering the race and potentially to the technical union of the Religious Zionism party with the "Identity" party. Otzma Yehudit's support has also been impacted, falling from nine to six mandates.

Despite the "change bloc's" overall decline, if the newly formed "third bloc" of unaffiliated parties is considered alongside the opposition, the opposition bloc collectively reaches 70 mandates, mirroring figures from late August. However, the opposition would still require the abstention or support of Arab parties to form a government.