Internal Polls Reveal Netanyahu's Coalition Faces Voter Defections Despite Rightward Shift

Recent internal polls troubling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reveal that despite a rightward shift in Israeli public opinion following the October 7 attacks, between 15 and 25 Knesset seats worth of voters from the coalition base refuse to support coalition parties. Analysts attribute this gap to dissatisfaction with the Likud party list composition and its alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties, which are driving voters away.

The public has moved right on issues such as tradition and Judaism, security hardline stances, and support for settlements in the West Bank, opposing territorial concessions. However, right-wing parties have not gained the expected increase in support; while pre-October 7 polls showed 68 seats for parties aligned with these views, current polls show fewer than 70, sometimes as low as 61 seats. Additional factors pushing voters away include anger over the October 7 tragedy occurring under the current government, high living costs, and disappointment with the failed judicial reform.

Competition within the right-wing bloc is intense, especially between Likud and Otzma Yehudit, with some voters also considering the Yisrael Beiteinu party. Notably, 39% of Jewish voters reject Otzma Yehudit outright, and including Arab voters, about half the electorate excludes the party. Statistical modeling averaging multiple polls indicates only an 11.05% chance for the coalition to secure a majority, compared to 21.38% for the opposition without Arab parties. A broad government including Likud, Religious Zionism, Yamina, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Blue and White is highly probable.

Religious Zionism is near the electoral threshold with about 4.8 seats and a largely fixed voter base, limiting its growth potential. Voter movement trends show asymmetry: more Likud voters consider switching to Yisrael Beiteinu or Yisrael Sheli than vice versa, and undecided voters tend to lean toward opposition parties. This dynamic underscores that although the Israeli public has shifted rightward, a significant portion of right-wing voters are not ready to return to the current coalition parties, leaving the political landscape fragmented and uncertain ahead of the 2026 elections.