Netanyahu's Coalition Gains Ground Against Opposition in Israeli Polls

Recent polls indicate a significant shift in the Israeli political landscape, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition narrowing the gap with the opposition. While previous surveys from February to July showed the opposition holding a substantial lead, with around 60 mandates compared to the coalition's 49-50, the latest polls suggest a near-even split. Neither bloc is projected to secure the 61 mandates needed for a majority without the support of Arab parties.

Despite the coalition's improved standing, Gadi Eisenkot's National Unity party remains the most popular single party. The Likud party, led by Netanyahu, is also losing some support, though at a slower pace. A Kantar poll, for instance, predicts the Likud could win 20 mandates, while National Unity would secure 22.

The current seat distribution, according to one survey, shows coalition parties gaining 48 mandates, or 52 with the support of Yitzhak Pindrus (United Torah Judaism). The main opposition bloc is projected to win 52 mandates, potentially rising to 56 with the support of Yifat Shasha-Biton and Ze'ev Elkin. Arab parties are expected to garner 12 mandates.

Even during the recent conflict with Iran, which typically boosts a prime minister's popularity, Netanyahu did not see a significant increase in support. However, maintaining his current standing is considered an achievement given the circumstances. Earlier reports indicated that Knesset elections were scheduled for October 27, amidst the ongoing war and discussions surrounding the October 7th events. Several former high-ranking military officials are among Netanyahu's main rivals.