Right-Wing Public Support Grows but Coalition Faces Mandate Loss Ahead of Israeli Elections

As Israel approaches its upcoming elections, a paradox emerges: public sentiment has shifted significantly to the right following recent war events, yet the right-wing coalition itself appears to be weakening. Estimates suggest that between 15 and 25 right-wing voters are currently unwilling to support any of the three main right-wing parties: Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. This fragmentation threatens the coalition’s strength despite the public’s rightward shift.

Polls show conflicting data, with some indicating the right-wing bloc holding fewer seats than expected given the public mood. Analysts attribute this to voter indecision and dissatisfaction with the current coalition’s composition, particularly the alliance between Likud and ultra-Orthodox parties. Other factors driving voter hesitation include anger over the government’s handling of the October 7 terror attack, economic issues like the cost of living, and disappointment with judicial reforms.

Opposition parties led by figures such as Gadi Eizenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and Benny Gantz are attempting to capitalize on these fractures by appealing to some right-wing values, especially security and settlement support, while criticizing the government’s ties with the ultra-Orthodox. However, they struggle to address the religious-traditionalist aspect fully, leaving a gap in the right-wing political spectrum.

Within Likud, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is grappling with internal party dynamics, including primary election procedures and candidate list composition, to maintain control and maximize electoral success. He secured unprecedented eight reserved spots on the party list to allow flexibility and fend off rivals. Meanwhile, tensions persist with party figures like David Bitan and Haim Katz, reflecting ongoing factional struggles.

A potential third option, a new right-wing party that could unify disaffected voters across all key issues including ultra-Orthodox conscription, is being considered but faces challenges such as the electoral threshold and ensuring loyalty to the right-wing bloc. Netanyahu supports such a party but fears it could also siphon votes away.

Security figures like Ofer Winter openly criticize both the opposition and government approaches, emphasizing a hardline right-wing stance and rejecting cooperation with parties perceived as leftist or unreliable. The political landscape remains fluid and uncertain as parties strategize to capture the shifting electorate ahead of the elections.