New Poll Shows Coalition Strengthening Amidst Right-Wing Consolidation

A new Maariv poll indicates a significant shift in Israel's political landscape, with the coalition government gaining strength following the merger of the Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit parties. The unified list is projected to secure five Knesset seats, surpassing the electoral threshold. This consolidation, combined with the potential addition of Ofer Winter's 'Am Israel' party, pushes the coalition's projected seat count to 51, its highest since May. The poll, conducted by Lazar Research between September 2nd and 3rd with 600 respondents, suggests the coalition bloc could rise to 47 seats, while the opposition bloc falls to 57.

Despite the coalition's gains, 'Yesh!,' led by Gadi Eisenkot, remains the largest single party with 23 seats, though it lost two seats since the previous poll. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party holds steady at 20 seats, while Naftali Bennett's 'Achva' party garners 15. Yair Golan's 'The Democrats' receive 10 seats, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu has 9, and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit secures 8 seats. Other parties like United Torah Judaism and the Arab parties (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) each hold 7 seats, while Shas has 5, and Ra'am has 5. Winter's 'Am Israel' party is projected to win 4 seats.

In head-to-head matchups for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by nine percentage points (48% to 39%). Netanyahu trails Bennett by four points (39% to 43%) but leads Lieberman by three points (42% to 39%).

The survey also explored public concerns regarding Iran and the events of October 7th. A majority of respondents, 55%, expressed concern about a potential new conflict with Iran in the near future, with 17% being very concerned. Regarding the October 7th attacks, 40% of those polled believe there was "betrayal from within," while 44% disagree. This belief is significantly divided along political lines, with 61% of coalition supporters believing in internal betrayal and 64% of opposition supporters rejecting the idea.

Furthermore, the poll revealed a desire for further consolidation within the opposition, with 52% of centrist opposition voters favoring additional mergers before the next election, compared to 27% who prefer the current party structures. Support for mergers is also high among voters for 'The Democrats' (57%) and Yisrael Beiteinu (55%). Several parties, including those led by Chili Tropper, Yoaz Hendel, Yaron Zelekha, Gilad Erdan, Benny Gantz, and Moti Leitner, failed to cross the electoral threshold in the poll.