Poll Shows Knesset Seat Distribution Tightening Ahead of Party Lists Closing

With less than a week until party lists must be finalized for the upcoming elections, Israeli political parties are solidifying their slates. Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin announced their joint candidacy, while Ofer Winter launched his "Amichai Israel" party. The Likud party is reportedly considering moving Tali Gottlieb to the Otzma Yehudit party, with Itamar Ben-Gvir setting a deadline for this decision.

A new poll conducted by i24NEWS via the Direct Polls Institute, led by Tzuriell Sharon, indicates a rare tie between the blocs for the first time since mid-May. If elections were held today, the Likud party would secure 27 seats, an increase of one from the previous i24NEWS poll on August 26. Yisrael Beiteinu remains stable with 23 seats, while the Democratic Party loses one seat, totaling nine.

Other parties show shifts: "Bnei Tzion" led by Bennett gains one seat for nine total. Yahadut HaTorah remains stable with eight seats. The Joint List gains one seat for seven, and Otzma Yehudit also strengthens by one seat, reaching seven. Shas remains stable with seven seats, while "Israel Beiteinu" loses a seat, also ending with seven.

The Religious Zionism party gains two seats compared to the last poll, reaching six seats following its alliance with Feiglin. Ra'am, after reserving a spot for Yoav Segalovich, loses one seat for five, and Winter's "Amichai Israel" party also secures five seats, down from eight in the prior survey.

For the first time since mid-May, the blocs are projected to have 60 seats for the coalition, 48 for the opposition, and 12 for Arab parties. The poll also explored a scenario where Winter and his party unite with Religious Zionism and Zehut under Smotrich's leadership as "United Right Parties." In this case, Likud would drop to 26 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu would remain stable at 23, the United Right Parties would gain 11 seats (combining Smotrich/Feiglin's six and Winter's five), and Democrats would hold nine. United Torah Judaism would maintain eight seats, Otzma Yehudit would gain one for eight, the Joint List would stay at seven, as would Israel Beiteinu and Shas. The United Arab List would close the list with five seats. The bloc distribution remains unchanged in this hypothetical scenario.

The survey involved 522 adult participants representing a sample of Israel's population, conducted on September 2, 2026, with a statistical margin of error of ±4.2% at a 95% confidence level.