Poll Shows Netanyahu's Likud Leading, Right-Wing Bloc Short of Majority

A new poll conducted by Direct Polls for i24NEWS indicates that if Israeli legislative elections were held today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party would emerge as the largest faction with 27 seats. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! party is projected to come in second with 23 seats, significantly ahead of The Democrats and Beyahad, each expected to secure nine seats. The United Torah Judaism party is forecast to win eight mandates, while the United Arab List, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and Yisrael Beiteinu are each projected to receive seven seats. An alliance between Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism and Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party would garner six seats. Ra'am and Ofer Winter's new party, Amcha Israel, are both expected to cross the electoral threshold with five seats each.

In this initial scenario, a bloc comprising the Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudit, the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance, and Amcha Israel would collectively win 60 seats. This falls one seat short of the 61 needed for an absolute majority in the Knesset.

The poll also explored a second electoral scenario. In this hypothetical situation, Ofer Winter and Amcha Israel would join Religious Zionism and Zehut to form a new "Union of Right-Wing Parties" list, led by Bezalel Smotrich. Concurrently, Tally Gotliv would reportedly leave Likud to join Otzma Yehudit. Under these changes, Likud would lose one seat, securing 26 mandates, while Yashar! would remain stable with 23 seats. The new "Union of Right-Wing Parties" would become the third-largest political force with 11 seats. The Democrats and Beyahad would maintain nine seats each. United Torah Judaism would hold eight seats, and Otzma Yehudit would increase to eight seats following Gotliv's potential move. The United Arab List, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Shas would each receive seven seats, and Ra'am would get five seats.

This revised configuration does not alter the overall balance, with the Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudit, and the Union of Right-Wing Parties still totaling 60 seats, one short of a majority. The survey was conducted on September 2, 2026, polling 522 representative Israelis aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±4.2% and a 95% confidence level.