New Poll Shows Shifting Right-Wing Bloc Dynamics Amid Potential Mergers

A new poll conducted by Kantar Institute in Israel indicates significant shifts in the political landscape, particularly concerning the right-wing bloc, depending on potential party mergers. In the baseline scenario, Gadi Eisenkot's 'Yashar' party leads with 24 seats, followed closely by Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud with 23. Naftali Bennett's 'Beitech' secures 15 seats, Yair Golan's Democrats 11, and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu 9.

Other parties in the baseline scenario include United Torah Judaism with 8 seats, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit with 7, the Joint List with 7, and Shas with 7. Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, garners 5 seats, while Ra'am, headed by Mansour Abbas, receives 4. Several parties, including those led by Chili Tropper, Benny Gantz, and Galad Erdan, fall below the electoral threshold.

The poll also examined several merger scenarios. If Religious Zionism merges with Moshe Feiglin's 'Identity' party, the combined list would receive 7 seats, with no significant change to the top parties. Similarly, a merger between Religious Zionism and Ofer Winter's 'Noam L'Yisrael' party also results in the combined list receiving 7 seats, again with minimal impact on the overall seat distribution for major parties.

In terms of blocs, the opposition parties collectively hold 59 seats, Arab parties 11, and the current coalition bloc 50 seats. The poll surveyed a representative sample of Israelis aged 18 and over, exploring various potential electoral alliances and their impact on the Knesset's composition.