New Poll Shows "Yashr" Party Leading, Netanyahu's Likud Gains One Seat

A new poll by Channel 12 News indicates that the "Yashr" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, would be the largest party in the Knesset with 24 seats if elections were held today. The Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, is projected to gain one seat, reaching 23 mandates, making it the second-largest party. The "Together" party, led by Naftali Bennett, is expected to maintain its strength with 15 seats, while the "Democrats" led by Yair Golan would secure 11 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" is polling at 9 seats, and "United Torah Judaism" under Moshe Gafni holds 8 seats. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is weakening to 8 seats, and the Joint List is projected to receive 7 seats. Shas remains at a low of 7 seats. Notably, "Amcha Israel," a new party led by Ofer Winter, is polling at 4 seats, the same as Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas. Crucially, Bezalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism" party and Moshe Feiglin's "Zeut" party are projected to fall below the electoral threshold, failing to enter the Knesset. The poll also explored various merger scenarios, including a potential union between Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, which would strengthen the right-wing bloc. In a hypothetical head-to-head, Gadi Eisenkot is preferred over Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister by 43% to 34%. The poll surveyed 506 respondents and was conducted by Midgam Research.

In scenarios involving party mergers, a union between Religious Zionism and Zeut, alongside a joint list of Blue and White, The Reservists, and Ayelet Shaked, would result in the "Yashr" party leading with 24 seats and Likud with 23. However, in another scenario where Religious Zionism merges with Likud, and Blue and White unites with The Reservists and Ayelet Shaked, "Yashr" would slightly weaken to 22 seats, and Likud to 20. A joint run by Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, as seen in previous elections, would yield 11 seats for the combined party, with "Yashr" at 23 and Likud at 21.

The poll also addressed public opinion on coalition formation. The bloc opposing Netanyahu currently holds 70 seats, while the coalition parties collectively have 50. When asked about the preference for a unity government if neither bloc can form a majority, 35% supported it, while 29% opposed. Among coalition voters, only 15% supported Eisenkot heading a unity government, with 57% opposing. Opposition voters showed strong opposition to Netanyahu leading a unity government, with 79% against it. Regarding the past coalition's performance, 46% of opposition voters felt that not cooperating with Netanyahu was the correct decision.