New Poll Shows "Yes!" Party Leading, Ofer Vinter's Party Edges Over Threshold

A new Israeli election poll conducted by Kantar Institute for Kan News shows the "Yes!" party leading with 24 mandates, followed by the Likud with 21, and "Achdut" with 14. The Democrats are projected to receive 9 mandates, while Yisrael Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism each secure 8. The Joint List also garners 8 mandates, Otzma Yehudit and Shas receive 7 each, Ra'am gets 5, and Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich, also stands at 5 mandates.

Ofer Vinter's "Emek Yisrael" party has managed to cross the electoral threshold, obtaining 4 mandates. However, the poll indicates the party is precariously close to falling below the threshold, especially after Vinter officially announced he would recommend Benjamin Netanyahu for prime minister. A separate report mentioned a private meeting between Netanyahu and Vinter regarding a new proposal.

In terms of bloc support, the "Eisenkot bloc" is projected to have 55 mandates, Netanyahu's bloc 52, and Arab parties 13. The poll suggests a single mandate shift between blocs, moving from Liberman's party towards Vinter's.

The analysis also highlights a critical scenario for potential right-wing mergers: if Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin unite their parties, they would collectively receive 7 mandates. Such a merger is predicted to push Vinter's party below the electoral threshold, significantly altering the political landscape.