New Poll Shows Retired General Ofer Winter's Party Surpassing Threshold

A new poll by Kan 11 indicates a significant shift in the Israeli political landscape, with retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter's new party, 'Am Israel,' projected to enter the Knesset with 4 seats. This marks the first time Winter's party has crossed the electoral threshold in an official poll.

The survey also shows a decline for the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich, which falls below the threshold, and a weakening of Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party to 7 seats. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party drops to 21 seats, while Gadi Eisenkot's 'Yash' party leads with 24 seats. Naftali Bennett's 'Bayit Hayehudi' receives 14 seats, and Yair Golan's 'HaDemocratim' secures 9 seats.

In the Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) sector, United Torah Judaism remains stable with 8 seats, and Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, receives 7 seats. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party garners 8 seats.

Arab parties show a notable increase, with the Arab Union (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) gaining 8 seats and Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, securing 5 seats, bringing the total for Arab parties to 13 seats.

Several parties, including Smotrich's Religious Zionism, Trooper and Handel's party, Gideon Sa'ar and Gilad Erdan's party, and Benny Gantz's National Unity party, remain below the electoral threshold.

In terms of blocs, Netanyahu's bloc strengthens to 52 seats with Winter's entry, while Eisenkot's bloc weakens to 55 seats. The Arab parties hold 13 seats, potentially making them kingmakers.

The poll also examined potential party mergers. A union between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would result in 10 seats combined, less than their separate runs, but 57% of coalition voters support such a merger. If Smotrich were to unite with Moshe Feiglin, Religious Zionism would reach 7 seats, tying with Ben-Gvir, but Winter's party would fall below the threshold.