New Israeli Poll Shows Center-Left Party Leading, Ultra-Orthodox Party Emerges

A new poll released by Channel 12 News indicates a significant shift in the Israeli political landscape. The "Yashar" party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, is currently leading with 24 mandates, followed by the Likud party with 21, and Naftali Bennett's "Be'adcha" party with 16. Yair Golan's "Democrats" are projected to receive 11 mandates.

Other parties in the poll include Israel Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit, each with 9 mandates. United Torah Judaism is polling at 8 mandates, and Shas at 7. The Joint List is expected to secure 7 mandates, while Ra'am receives 4.

A notable development is the emergence of the "Chareidi Public" party, led by Moti Leitner, which launched just last week. In the baseline scenario, the party garners 1.2% support, rising to 1.5% if Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin were to unite. This level of support, representing tens of thousands of votes, is significant for a party tested in its first poll.

Another scenario tested in the poll suggests that retired Major General Ofer Winter, running independently, could win 4 mandates, while Smotrich's Religious Zionism party would fail to pass the electoral threshold. In this specific scenario, the coalition bloc would have 49 mandates, compared to 71 for the opposition and Arab parties combined.

Several other parties fell below the electoral threshold in the poll, including "Reserve Soldiers' Home" led by Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper (2.9%), "The Unity" led by Gilad Erdan (0.8%), and Blue and White led by Benny Gantz (0.4%).