Gadi Eizenkot's Party Leads Israeli Poll, Surpasses Netanyahu's Likud

A new Channel 12 poll published on Monday shows that if elections were held today, the party led by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot would be the largest in Israel, securing 23 Knesset seats. This marks a continued rise for Eizenkot, who also leads in the preferred prime minister matchups. The Likud party, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, drops by one seat to 22, making it the second-largest party. The third-largest party is Yamina, led by Naftali Bennett, maintaining its strength with 16 seats.

The Democratic Party holds fourth place with 10 seats, followed by Israel Beiteinu also at 10 seats, Otzma Yehudit with 9, Shas with 8, and United Torah Judaism with 8 seats. At the lower end, Hadash-Ta'al falls to 5 seats, the Religious Zionist Party remains above the electoral threshold with 5 seats, and Ra'am strengthens to 5 seats. New parties such as the one led by Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel fall short of the threshold with 2.9%, while Blue and White and Balad receive 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively.

Regarding bloc distribution, the Zionist opposition grows to 59 seats, and with the Arab parties included, the opposition bloc reaches 69 seats. The current coalition holds 51 seats, meaning neither side can form a government without additional partners. The poll also tested scenarios involving party mergers, including potential alliances between Benny Gantz and Dedi Simchi, and separate runs by Yuli Edelstein, Gilad Erdan, and Ayelet Shaked. None of these scenarios change the bloc balance, and the new lists remain below the electoral threshold.

In prime minister preference matchups, Eizenkot leads Netanyahu by 43% to 34%, widening the gap from the previous poll. Netanyahu leads Bennett narrowly at 37% to 35%, and holds a 38% to 27% lead over Avigdor Lieberman. When asked about the impact of the October 7 events on their political views, about half said there was no effect, 38% said it pushed them more right-wing, and 7% said more left-wing.

On the controversial legislative package involving the ultra-Orthodox parties, 62% oppose the deal, while 22% support it. Among coalition voters, 18% oppose the legislation, whereas 95% of opposition voters reject it.