Gadi Eizenkot's Yisrael! Party Surges Past Likud in New Israeli Poll

A recent Maariv poll reveals a significant shift in Israeli political standings amid the coalition's legislative blitz. Gadi Eizenkot's Yisrael! party leads with 22 Knesset seats, surpassing Likud, which holds 21 seats. This marks a two-seat increase for Yisrael! since the last poll and a ten-seat jump since the April union of Bennett and Lapid. Meanwhile, the Together party drops to 18 seats. Other parties include Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats with 10 seats each, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and United Torah Judaism with 8 seats each, Hadash-Ta'al with 6, Ra'am with 5, and Religious Zionism barely crossing the threshold with 4 seats.

The union between Hili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel fails to pass the electoral threshold with 2.9%, reducing Netanyahu's bloc to 49 seats against 60 for the Zionist opposition and 11 for Arab parties. If Bennett's Yisrael! and Together unite, they would gain 35 seats, slightly up from before but five fewer than running separately. In this scenario, Tropper-Hendel surpass the threshold with 5 seats, mainly at the expense of Yisrael Beiteinu, the Democrats, and Religious Zionism, which falls below the threshold at 2.4%. The bloc distribution would be 48 seats for Netanyahu's coalition, 56 for the Zionist opposition, 5 for Tropper-Hendel, and 11 for Arab parties, enabling a stable opposition-led government.

If Eizenkot leads the united Yisrael!-Together list, it rises to 39 seats, with Religious Zionism again failing to enter the Knesset at 2.9%. Tropper-Hendel secure 4 seats, and the bloc totals stand at 46 for Netanyahu, 59 for the Zionist opposition, and 11 for Arab parties. A coalition including the Zionist opposition and Tropper-Hendel would hold 63 seats.

Regarding prime ministerial suitability, Bennett narrows his gap with Netanyahu to 2% (43% to 41%) in a direct race, while Eizenkot leads Netanyahu by 8% (48% to 40%). A separate Israel Hayom poll explores a potential new right-wing party within the "third bloc," which could form a broad unity government excluding Netanyahu but not opposing him outright. This party garners significant interest, with 47% of respondents open to voting for it. Among potential leaders, Gilad Erdan leads with 12% support, followed by Benny Gantz (10%) and Yuli Edelstein (9%).

Finally, public opinion is divided over the Supreme Court ruling mandating repeat elections for the State Comptroller. Only 50% support compliance, while 28% favor defiance. Opposition voters largely back compliance (73%), whereas coalition supporters predominantly support defiance (57%). The Knesset legal advisor's decision to back the legislature's stance against repeat elections reflects internal agreements and suggests judicial restraint might ease public tensions.