New Poll Shows Gadi Eisenkot's Party Leading, Ben Gvir Weakening

A new poll conducted by Channel 12 News indicates that Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashr" party would be the largest in the Knesset if elections were held today, securing 24 mandates. This represents a stable showing for Eisenkot compared to previous polls. Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party shows a slight increase, garnering 23 mandates, making it the second-largest party. Naftali Bennett's "Achadut" party maintains its strength with 15 mandates, while Yair Golan's "HaDemokratim" receives 11 mandates. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is projected to win 9 mandates, and United Torah Judaism, led by Moshe Gafni, holds steady with 8 mandates.

Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, weakens to 8 mandates. The Joint List, led by Yosef Jabareen, secures 7 mandates, as does Shas, which remains at a low of 7 mandates. Ofer Winter's new "Amcha Israel" party enters the Knesset with 4 mandates, the same number projected for Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas. Notably, Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party falls below the electoral threshold with 2.6% of the vote, as do Moshe Feiglin's Zehut (2.1%) and the "Tzabar Miluimnik" party (2.6%).

The poll also explored several coalition and opposition scenarios. One scenario suggests that a merger between Religious Zionism and Zehut, along with a joint list of Blue and White and Achdut, would still fall short of the electoral threshold for some parties. Another scenario, merging Likud with Religious Zionism and forming a joint list of Blue and White, Tzabar Miluimnik, and Ayelet Shaked, would see Likud weaken to 20 mandates. A third scenario, uniting Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, would result in an 11-mandate bloc.

In head-to-head matchups for Prime Minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 43% to 34%. When compared to Bennett, Netanyahu leads 36% to 35%. In a comparison with Lieberman, Netanyahu also leads 36% to 27%. The poll also found that 35% of respondents would support a unity government if neither bloc could form a coalition, while 29% would oppose it. Among opposition voters, 79% oppose Netanyahu leading a unity government.