New Poll Shows Potential Knesset Shake-Up, Right-Wing Bloc Lacks Majority

A new poll conducted by Walla News reveals significant shifts within Israel's right-wing political landscape, with a potential merger between Bezalel Smotrich's "Religious Zionism" and Moshe Feiglin's "Zeut" party projected to win five Knesset seats. However, even with this consolidation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition would still fall short of a parliamentary majority.

The survey tested various electoral scenarios, with the combined Smotrich-Feiglin list garnering 4.1% of the vote. In a hypothetical Knesset, Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party emerges as the largest with 24 seats, followed by Netanyahu's "Likud" with 22. Naftali Bennett's "Bechach" party secures 15 seats, Yair Golan's "Democrats" 10, and Avigdor Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" nine.

Haredi and Arab parties show stable results, with "Yahadut HaTorah" and the unified Arab list each receiving eight seats. Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Otzma Yehudit" and Aryeh Deri's "Shas" are projected to win seven seats each. The Smotrich-Feiglin union would take five seats, as would Mansour Abbas's "Ra'am" party.

A notable finding is the significant number of "wasted" votes, with approximately 10% of the electorate, equivalent to 12 Knesset seats, going to parties failing to cross the electoral threshold. "Am Ich Israel," led by Ofer Winter, is particularly affected by the potential Smotrich-Feiglin merger, dropping to 2.3% support and falling outside the Knesset. Other parties like "HaBayit HaZioní - HaReseravim" (3.0%), "New Economy" (2.0%), "Blue and White" (0.7%), and "Israel First" (0.2%) also fail to gain sufficient support.

The poll also examined a scenario where MK Tali Gottlieb leaves Likud to join "Otzma Yehudit," boosting Ben-Gvir's party to eight seats and reducing Likud to 21. In this case, the Smotrich-Feiglin list would lose a seat, falling to four. Despite these internal adjustments, the overall balance between political blocs remains largely unchanged, with Netanyahu's right-wing bloc consistently failing to secure a majority. In the Smotrich-Feiglin merger scenario, Netanyahu's coalition would have 49 seats versus 58 for the opposition, with Arab parties holding 13. The Gottlieb-to-Otzma Yehudit scenario results in a similar distribution: 48 seats for the coalition, 59 for the opposition, and 13 for Arab parties.