Poll Shows Potential Knesset Shifts With Party Mergers and Defections

A new poll conducted by Lazar Research for Walla indicates significant shifts in the Israeli political landscape, particularly concerning the right-wing bloc, should certain party mergers and defections occur. The survey, conducted between September 1st and 2nd, 2026, with 500 respondents, suggests that a union between Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party and Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party would yield a combined list of 5 Knesset seats, representing 4.1% of the vote. This merger would push Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party below the electoral threshold with only 2.3% support.

Furthermore, the poll explores the impact of MK Tally Gottlieb joining Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party. This move would boost Otzma Yehudit to 8 seats, a gain of one mandate. This increase would primarily come at the expense of the Likud, which would drop to 21 seats, and the Religious Zionism-Zehut list, which would fall to 4 seats, each losing one mandate.

Despite these potential shifts within the right-wing parties, the overall balance between the blocs remains largely unchanged. In both scenarios presented, the Netanyahu-led coalition secures 49 or 48 seats, facing a united opposition bloc of 58 or 59 seats. Arab parties, largely unified, would hold 13 seats. The poll also highlights that parties falling below the electoral threshold would waste approximately 10% of the votes, equivalent to 12 Knesset seats.

The survey's margin of error is a maximum of 4.4%. The respondents represent a sample of the adult population in Israel aged 18 and over, including both Jewish and Arab citizens.