Netanyahu Faces Major Challenge Securing Right-Wing Majority in Upcoming Elections

Strategic advisor Nimrod Eliran Sabach discussed the challenges facing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the right-wing bloc in the upcoming elections during an interview on "Israel HaBoker." A primary concern is voter turnout, particularly among Arab citizens, and the risk of some right-wing parties failing to cross the electoral threshold.

Sabach noted that the Likud party has petitioned to disqualify the Ra'am and Joint List parties from the elections, fearing their impact on the results. He stated that the right-wing bloc's starting point is the 64 mandates secured in the 2022 elections, meaning the main challenge is retaining existing support and ensuring right-wing voters go to the polls, rather than attracting new voters.

The advisor also addressed the potential impact of retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter's new party. Sabach suggested Winter could contribute significantly if he brings in new right-wing voters. However, he warned that Winter is currently drawing support from the Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit parties, posing a risk if he doesn't bring in fresh votes. The competition between Winter and Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich is a key point of tension, as the failure of either party to pass the threshold could harm the entire bloc.

Sabach urged right-wing party leaders to adopt a bloc-wide perspective and avoid ego-driven conflicts, emphasizing the need to secure an agreement with Winter. He stressed that as long as Winter is a candidate, other right-wing parties should consider him part of their coalition. He also recalled that the previous election's success was partly due to left-wing parties failing to cross the threshold, a scenario he believes is unlikely to repeat, and warned that failing to sign surplus vote agreements could be detrimental.