Netanyahu Faces Tough Challenge Uniting Right-Wing Ahead of September Elections

With less than two weeks until the September 8 deadline for finalizing party lists, Israel's upcoming elections are entering a critical phase that could determine their outcome. Four years ago, Benjamin Netanyahu successfully united right-wing factions by brokering a technical bloc deal between Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, preventing vote splitting and securing a narrow victory. This alliance paved the way for subsequent political developments, including the controversial judicial reforms and ongoing security crises.

In contrast, the left-wing bloc failed to unite before the 2022 elections, with Meretz and Labor running separately despite attempts by Yair Lapid to merge them. This division caused Meretz to narrowly miss the electoral threshold, costing the opposition crucial seats and handing Netanyahu's bloc a 64-56 Knesset majority despite receiving fewer total votes.

Today, Netanyahu faces a far more difficult political landscape. Recent polls show his bloc at historic lows, with the Likud party dropping to around 19 seats and the broader right-wing coalition struggling to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Netanyahu lacks leverage over key right-wing figures like Otzma Yehudit leader Ofir Winter, who has not responded to his calls, and relations with Ben-Gvir and Smotrich remain tense despite their past cooperation.

Unlike in 2022, Netanyahu cannot easily enforce unity among right-wing factions, many of whom have grown more independent and confident. His political standing has weakened amid public dissatisfaction and security challenges. Nevertheless, Netanyahu is intensifying efforts to pressure Winter, Smotrich, and Ben-Gvir to unite, warning that failure to do so risks handing power to a left-wing government allied with Arab parties.

The coming days will reveal whether Netanyahu can replicate his previous success in assembling a cohesive right-wing bloc or if his diminished influence will lead to electoral defeat and a shift in Israel's political landscape.