Netanyahu Pressures Ben Gvir to Unite with Smotrich Amid Poll Warnings of Vote Loss

Behind the public campaign to unite Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party lies a complex political struggle involving private talks, in-depth polls, and mounting tensions. Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, urging him to join forces with Bezalel Smotrich on a single list. Ben Gvir firmly refused, arguing that Smotrich would cause significant electoral damage to both parties. He presented detailed polls from Otzma Yehudit’s campaign showing that a merger would dramatically reduce his potential Knesset seats.

According to reports in Haaretz, the polls indicate that uniting the two parties risks alienating key voter groups, including young and first-time voters, peripheral residents who do not identify with Smotrich, and even some Haredi voters considering Otzma Yehudit. Ben Gvir’s team claims about 80% of Religious Zionist voters would shift to Otzma Yehudit leader Ofer Winter if Winter unites with Otzma Yehudit. Netanyahu agreed with Ben Gvir’s analysis and rejected a proposal to include Smotrich on the Likud list, calling Smotrich a "real electoral liability."

Following their private meeting, Netanyahu publicly pressured Ben Gvir to unite with Smotrich, posting a video on X urging reconciliation despite personal differences. Ben Gvir responded with a mocking video accusing Netanyahu of wanting a small Otzma Yehudit to facilitate a broad national unity government with Benny Gantz. Smotrich hinted at willingness to unite, calling for responsibility in the right-wing camp. Netanyahu warned that without unification, a left-wing government could emerge.

Ben Gvir remained defiant, citing poll data showing a joint list with Smotrich would cost Otzma Yehudit 3-4 Knesset seats. He also recalled Netanyahu’s own comment that the ideal scenario to maximize votes was a joint run by Winter and Smotrich, as Winter supposedly attracts no undecided voters. The right-wing camp faces increasing strain amid multiple satellite parties and fears of vote splitting. Recent polls show Ofer Winter’s "Amcha Israel" party gaining six seats, pushing Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party below the electoral threshold with only 2.6% support.