Ofer Winter’s New Party Draws Votes from Netanyahu Bloc, Threatening Right-Wing Unity

Ofer Winter, a retired brigadier general, is shaking up Israel’s political landscape with the launch of his new party ahead of the 2026 elections. Recent polls show Winter’s party securing four mandates even before its official launch, with projections potentially rising as the campaign progresses. Analysis of voter sources reveals that 60% of Winter’s support comes from existing coalition parties, primarily the Likud, while the remaining 40% stems from undecided voters and those seeking alternatives.

Specifically, 30% of Winter’s voters defect from Likud, 15% from the Religious Zionist Party led by Bezalel Smotrich, and another 15% from Otzma Yehudit under Itamar Ben-Gvir. Additionally, 25% come from voters previously unaligned with any party, and 15% are undecided voters now attracted to Winter’s list. This dynamic presents a double-edged sword for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Winter’s party brings new voters into the right-wing camp but simultaneously cannibalizes votes from key coalition partners, notably pushing Smotrich’s party toward falling below the electoral threshold.

In response, Netanyahu is intensifying efforts to unify the right-wing factions to avoid vote splitting that could cost critical mandates. He is promoting two complex mergers: one between Winter and Smotrich, and another between Moshe Feiglin and Ben-Gvir. To incentivize cooperation, Netanyahu has reserved five realistic slots on the Likud list for candidates who might forgo their own party runs. However, Winter has so far rejected direct integration into Likud and has not responded to overtures, citing reluctance to join a party involved in the October 7 failures.

Behind the scenes, Dimona Mayor Benny Biton revealed that Winter was offered a reserved spot on the Likud list but chose to sever ties and avoid communications with Netanyahu’s office. Despite this, Biton downplayed concerns, suggesting that Winter’s critical remarks are part of election campaigning and that ultimately, Winter and Netanyahu will collaborate to form a government based on shared ideology.

The evolving situation highlights the precarious balance within the right-wing bloc, where Winter’s emergence could either expand the coalition’s voter base or jeopardize smaller allied parties, complicating Netanyahu’s path to securing a stable majority in the upcoming elections.