Netanyahu Faces Challenge From Independent Right-Wing Leader Ofer Winter Ahead of Elections

Two months before the Israeli elections, political analysts Amichai Segal and Michael Shemesh discussed the internal dynamics within the Likud party and the broader right-wing bloc on Galei Tzahal radio. While some reports suggested Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu privately lamented losing ten Knesset seats, Segal argued that internal Likud polls paint a more optimistic picture, and the pessimistic statements may be aimed at motivating party activists rather than reflecting reality.

The main concern for Netanyahu, according to both analysts, is the emergence of retired Major General Ofer Winter as an independent political figure on the right. Winter refuses to declare political allegiance to Netanyahu and opposes alliances with parties that were in power on October 7, the date of the recent Hamas attack. Crucially, Winter has not endorsed Netanyahu as the leader of the right-wing bloc, which analysts view as a direct challenge to Netanyahu’s longstanding leadership.

Segal noted that Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has traditionally been unified under his leadership, but Winter disrupts this dynamic by not committing to Netanyahu’s authority. Even if Winter pledges to recommend Netanyahu after the elections, the lack of explicit subordination is seen as problematic for Netanyahu. Shemesh emphasized that Winter is not a disciplined politician and highlighted his opposition to uniting with certain right-wing factions.

Both analysts expect significant political maneuvers before the candidate lists close. Segal doubts Netanyahu will succeed in uniting Smotrich and Ben Gvir, while Shemesh predicts that MK Hilik Trooper will eventually join another political framework rather than run independently. Regarding the Likud primaries, they agreed that MK Eti Atiya is likely to secure the last realistic spot over Minister Gila Gamliel.