Netanyahu Gears Up for Election Campaign as Likud Faces Uncertain Future
As the Israeli election campaign officially begins, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to lead the Likud party's efforts, with the party's success heavily reliant on his personal campaign strategy. Following the internal primaries and list finalization, the focus now shifts entirely to Netanyahu's leadership and his campaign team, including Topaz Lok and Yonatan Urich, who are producing video content. This approach, where the party's campaign is solely driven by its leader, has been a consistent strategy for Netanyahu in recent elections, highlighting his perceived effectiveness as a public performer.
Netanyahu's campaign is characterized by his direct involvement in crafting messages, deciding on targets for attack or support, and producing video content, often in response to current events. This was evident in a recent video addressing the fallout from his wife Sara Netanyahu's controversial remarks, where he stated, "There was no betrayal on October 7th." Meanwhile, other Likud members, including ministers and Knesset members, are largely sidelined, advised to avoid missteps in interviews or public appearances that could damage the campaign.
Despite Netanyahu's central role, there is underlying apprehension within the Likud regarding the party's electoral prospects. One Knesset member expressed concern, echoing fears that the Likud could fall significantly below 20 seats, a sentiment reflected in recent polls. The party's performance is seen as heavily dependent on Netanyahu's ability to boost their mandate, though there is uncertainty about how this can be achieved.
The political landscape is further complicated by the potential candidacy of Ofer Winter, who is currently polling below the electoral threshold. Winter faces a decision on whether to run independently, risking wasted votes, or to merge with other parties. He has stated that any alliances must be with "new and clean people" and has sent a message to Netanyahu that his party will not join a government that does not pass the conscription law before its formation.
Current polling data suggests that neither the Netanyahu bloc (49 seats) nor the opposing bloc led by Benny Gantz (58 seats) is likely to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. Arab parties are projected to win 13 seats. Many smaller parties, including those led by Gantz, Chili Tropper, and Gilad Erdan, are also polling below the electoral threshold. The upcoming week is anticipated to be filled with further mergers, splits, and political drama as parties finalize their lists before the deadline, with a significant risk of vote wastage within the Netanyahu bloc, a problem that plagued the opposing bloc in previous elections.
