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Prediction Markets Shift Millions From Eisenkot to Netanyahu
The online prediction market Polymarket experienced dramatic shifts in its odds for the Israeli election on Wednesday, with tens of millions of dollars wagered on the outcome. Early trading heavily favored Gadi Eisenkot to become the next prime minister, but the odds rapidly reversed to favor Benjamin Netanyahu as vote counting progressed.
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What happened
- 01The online prediction market Polymarket saw its Israeli election trading volume surpass $74 million by Wednesday morning.
- 02Gadi Eisenkot was initially favored with up to a 66% chance of becoming prime minister before the odds reversed.
- 03Benjamin Netanyahu took the lead in the betting overnight, with his odds of becoming prime minister rising to around 52%.
- 04The Likud party's chance of becoming the largest Knesset party surged to 99% on Polymarket, up from an early 70% favorability for Yesh Atid.
- 05Partial election results showed Netanyahu's bloc with 57 mandates and the opposition with 47, with over half the votes still uncounted.
- 06The high trading volume made the Israeli election one of the largest political markets outside the United States on the platform.
Initially, traders gave Eisenkot a probability of up to 66% to win the premiership, while his party, Yesh Atid, was given over a 70% chance of becoming the largest in the Knesset. By Wednesday morning, Netanyahu's probability of forming the government rose to approximately 52% or 53%, while Eisenkot's chances fell to around 25% or 31%. In a separate market, Netanyahu's Likud party saw its chances of winning the most seats surge to nearly 99%.
The total trading volume on Polymarket's Israeli election markets surpassed $74 million, making it one of the largest political betting markets ever recorded outside the United States. The surge in activity was particularly intense overnight as initial exit polls and partial results were released.
Despite the market shifts, the final election results remain pending. Partial counts showed Netanyahu's bloc with 57 mandates and the opposition with 47, leaving neither bloc with a clear 61-seat majority. More than half of the votes, including double envelopes containing soldiers' votes, were still uncounted on Wednesday morning.
Summarized by baba from the reports of 3 newsrooms. Updated
Latest report: Walla. Read Walla’s originalThe coverage
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