Full coverage· Politics· Updated
Political Betting Platform Sees Massive Bet Reversal on Israeli Election Outcome
The Polymarket betting platform saw a massive shift in its Israeli election market, with bets totaling around $70 million. Initially, Gadi Eisenkot was favored to become prime minister, but Benyamin Netanyahu surged ahead after exit polls were released.
2 newsrooms · 1 language · since
Plus
What happened
- 01Polymarket saw over $70 million traded on Israeli elections, one of the largest political bets outside the US.
- 02Initially, Gadi Eisenkot was favored to be prime minister, but Benyamin Netanyahu took the lead after exit polls.
- 03The market incorrectly predicted the largest party and Likud's seat count, but foresaw a close race.
- 04Bets on Netanyahu becoming prime minister accounted for over $23.1 million of the total market volume.
- 05A separate market on Netanyahu's tenure until June 2027 shows a 41% chance of him leaving office.
- 06The platform anticipates a lengthy coalition negotiation period, with a 60% chance of a hung parliament.
While the platform's predictions for the largest party and Likud's seat count were inaccurate, it correctly anticipated a close race and potential coalition challenges. The market now reflects a high probability of the Likud being the largest party and a prolonged period of coalition negotiations.
The coverage
2 newsrooms on this story
Who covered it
- LeftNone
- Centre1
- Right1
- HarediNone
- ArabNone
How it broke
See which of the 2 newsrooms broke it, and who waited
