Smart Money Shifts Dramatically in Netanyahu-Eisenkot Race
Translated & summarized from Maariv by baba
Benjamin Netanyahu has overtaken Gadi Eisenkot in the Israeli prime ministerial race according to the Polymarket prediction market, with Netanyahu at 44% and Eisenkot at 42%. The Likud party has also seen a dramatic surge, now holding an 85% chance of becoming the largest party, while "Yashar!" has fallen to 16%. These shifts reflect traders' reactions to recent exit polls released on October 27, 2026, with the final outcome remaining uncertain.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Benjamin Netanyahu leads Gadi Eisenkot in a prediction market race for prime minister at 44% to 42%.
- The Likud party's chance of becoming the largest in parliament has surged to 85%.
- The "Yashar!" party's probability of winning the most seats has dropped sharply to 16%.
- The prediction market has seen over $67 million traded on the prime ministerial race.
- Traders are reacting to exit poll results released on October 27, 2026.
Following the release of exit polls, the prediction market Polymarket has seen significant shifts in its assessment of the Israeli prime ministerial race. Benjamin Netanyahu has regained the lead, with his probability of becoming the next prime minister rising to 44%, a 16-point increase. Gadi Eisenkot's chances have dropped to 42%, a 12-point decrease. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's prospects have fallen to 6%, and Avigdor Lieberman's to 2%.
The market for the largest party in the Knesset has also experienced extreme volatility. The Likud party has surged to an 85% probability of winning the most seats, a massive 54% jump. Conversely, the "Yashar!" party has plummeted by 53% to just 16%. The "Bechaim" party is now considered to have less than a 1% chance.
These movements on Polymarket, where over $67 million has been traded on the prime ministerial race alone and over $12 million on the largest party market, reflect traders' reactions to the initial results. The substantial shift towards Likud and Netanyahu suggests investors view the exit polls as a significant win for them, despite Eisenkot's continued personal advantage in the prime minister race.
The article concludes by questioning whether the global betting market has accurately interpreted the situation or if the final vote count will drastically alter these predictions, potentially leading to substantial losses for traders. The date of the reported data is October 27, 2026.
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