Prediction Markets Shift Millions From Eisenkot to Netanyahu
Translated & summarized from Walla by baba
Prediction markets on Polymarket saw a significant shift from Gadi Eisenkot to Benjamin Netanyahu as Israeli election results emerged, with over $74 million traded. Eisenkot initially led with a 64.9% chance of becoming prime minister, but Netanyahu's odds rose to 52% by morning. In a separate market, the Likud party's chances of winning the most seats surged to 99%. The final election results are still pending, with neither bloc currently holding a clear majority.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Prediction markets shifted tens of millions of dollars from Gadi Eisenkot to Benjamin Netanyahu during Israeli election vote counting.
- Eisenkot initially held a 64.9% chance of becoming prime minister, but Netanyahu's odds rose to 52% by morning.
- The Likud party's chance of winning the most seats surged to 99% on Polymarket, from an earlier 68% for Eisenkot's party.
- Total trading volume on Polymarket's election markets surpassed $74 million.
- Neither bloc currently holds a clear majority of 61 seats as vote counting continues.
Prediction markets on the Polymarket platform saw a dramatic shift in favor of Benjamin Netanyahu as election results became clearer, with tens of millions of dollars wagered on the outcome. Initially, Gadi Eisenkot was the frontrunner, with traders giving him a 64.9% chance of becoming the next prime minister. However, as initial exit polls and vote counts were released, the sentiment rapidly changed.
By morning, Netanyahu's probability of forming the next government stood at approximately 52%, while Eisenkot's dropped to 25.6%. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman trailed significantly with 4.3% and 2.3% respectively. This represents a nearly 40 percentage point swing for Eisenkot within 24 hours, on a platform where total trading volume had surpassed $74 million.
The fluctuations began even before official results, with early exit polls indicating a close race. At one point, Netanyahu's chances were at 44% versus Eisenkot's 42.7%. As more votes were tallied overnight, Netanyahu's lead in the prediction market widened. This shift is seen as a reassessment by traders of each candidate's ability to form a government, rather than a direct reflection of public preference.
In a separate market predicting which party would win the most mandates, the change was even more pronounced. On October 19, Eisenkot's party was favored at 68% to finish first. By morning, the Likud party was priced at a 99% chance of becoming the largest party, with Eisenkot's party at only 1%. This market had seen $13.7 million in trades.
Despite the dramatic shifts on Polymarket, the final election results are not yet official. With over half the votes counted, partial results showed Netanyahu's bloc with 55-56 seats and the opposing bloc with 48-50, neither holding a clear majority of 61 seats. The final outcome could still change as votes, particularly from soldiers and double envelopes, are counted. Polymarket also shows Netanyahu leading with a 74% chance of receiving the first mandate to form a government, compared to Eisenkot's 27%, though receiving the mandate does not guarantee successful government formation.
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