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Betting Market Shifts Dramatically on Israeli Election Outcome
International betting markets for the Israeli election experienced a dramatic overnight shift on Wednesday, with Benjamin Netanyahu overtaking Gadi Eisenkot as the favored candidate to become the next prime minister. Prior to the election, Eisenkot held a consistent lead on the Polymarket platform, reaching up to 66% odds compared to Netanyahu's 19%. However, following the release of exit polls and partial official results, Netanyahu's probability surged to approximately 48% to 50%, while Eisenkot's fell to around 31% to 33.5%.
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What happened
- 01International betting markets shifted dramatically overnight, making Benjamin Netanyahu the favored candidate for prime minister over Gadi Eisenkot.
- 02Netanyahu's predicted probability of winning rose to around 50% on Polymarket, while Eisenkot's fell to approximately 31%.
- 03Total trading volume on the Polymarket platform for the Israeli election reached $73 million, a record for political betting outside the United States.
- 04The market corrected its predictions for Likud, giving it a 99% chance of being the largest party with 25 to 29 seats.
- 05The high voter turnout of 77.7% was the highest since 1999 and was initially interpreted as favoring Eisenkot.
- 06The Kalshi betting market placed a 51% probability on the prospect of no government being formed, as neither bloc has secured 61 mandates.
- 07Official election results are expected by November 4, and the betting markets will remain open until a prime minister is officially appointed.
The shift occurred as partial results indicated an advantage for the Netanyahu bloc, despite an initial high voter turnout of 77.7% that observers first interpreted as a protest vote favoring Eisenkot. Other candidates trailed far behind, with Naftali Bennett at approximately 6% to 7% and Avigdor Lieberman at around 2.5% to 2.7%. The Likud party, which bettors previously gave only a 26% chance of being the largest party, rose to a 99% probability, with expectations shifting toward Likud winning 25 to 29 seats.
Despite these shifts, neither bloc has secured the 61 mandates required to form a government. The American betting market Kalshi placed a 51% probability on the possibility that no government will be formed. The Polymarket betting event drew massive global interest, with total trading volume reaching $73 million, making it one of the largest political betting markets outside the United States. Official election results are expected by November 4, and the betting markets will remain open until a prime minister is officially appointed.
Summarized by baba from the reports of 3 newsrooms. Updated
Latest report: Hamal. Read Hamal’s originalThe coverage
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Betting Market Shifts Dramatically on Israeli Election Outcome
