Israeli Election Betting Markets Flip Dramatically in Netanyahu's Favor
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
International betting markets have dramatically reversed, now showing Benjamin Netanyahu with a 50% chance of becoming Israel's next prime minister, up from 19%, while Gadi Eisenkot's chances dropped to 31%. This shift follows high voter turnout initially interpreted as favoring Eisenkot. Despite the betting market changes, neither bloc has secured the 61 mandates needed for a government, and official results are expected by November 4.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli election betting markets dramatically shifted, favoring Benjamin Netanyahu over Gadi Eisenkot.
- Netanyahu's predicted success rose to 50% on Polymarket, while Eisenkot's fell to 31%.
- High voter turnout of 77.7% was initially seen as a protest vote for Eisenkot.
- Neither bloc has yet secured the 61 mandates needed to form a government.
- The possibility of no government being formed has a 51% probability on the Kalshi market.
- Official election results are expected by November 4, with coalition talks to follow.
International betting and prediction markets, known as 'Polymarket,' have seen a dramatic shift following Israel's general election, with Benjamin Netanyahu now leading in predictions over Gadi Eisenkot. While high voter turnout of 77.7% was initially interpreted by some global observers as a protest vote favoring Eisenkot, updated exit polls and partial results have reversed this trend. Partial official results are now indicating an advantage for the Netanyahu bloc, which is widening its lead.
Eisenkot had previously held a consistent lead in Polymarket predictions since July 2026, with his probability of becoming the next prime minister reaching 66% compared to Netanyahu's 19% just before the election. However, within less than 24 hours, the situation has inverted. As of Wednesday morning, Netanyahu is projected to win with approximately 50% of the bets on Polymarket, while Eisenkot has fallen to about 31%. Other candidates, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, are trailing with around 6% and 2.5% respectively.
Meanwhile, a competing American betting market, Kalshi, highlights the possibility of no government being formed, with a 51% probability, reflecting Israel's recent history of political deadlock and repeated elections. This scenario includes the potential for new elections to be called before a government is established, not necessarily tied to an equal number of mandates for the blocs.
International news agencies Reuters and AP are reporting that despite the shifts in predictions, neither bloc has yet secured the 61 mandates required to form a government. U.S. President Donald Trump commented on the initial results, stating he heard Netanyahu "did very well," but cautioned that it was too early to determine the final outcome and that he had not yet spoken with Netanyahu.
The Central Elections Committee estimates that the vote count, including double envelopes like soldiers' ballots, could conclude by Thursday afternoon, October 29. However, the official deadline for announcing the results is November 4. Even after the results are published, the formation of a coalition government will likely take weeks and could potentially lead to further elections.
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