Betting Market Favors Eisenkot Over Netanyahu for Next PM
Translated & summarized from Srugim by baba
Israeli betting site Polymarket indicates Gadi Eisenkot has a 62% chance of forming the next government, while Benjamin Netanyahu's chances have dropped to 28%. These odds reflect bettors' views, contrasting with recent polls showing a political deadlock. Eisenkot may attempt to form a minority government to unseat Netanyahu, which would count as a win on the betting platform.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Polymarket bettors give Gadi Eisenkot a 62% chance to form the next Israeli government.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's chances on Polymarket have fallen to 28%.
- Betting odds differ from recent polls, which suggest a political deadlock.
- Eisenkot might form a minority government to remove Netanyahu from office.
- A minority government scenario would be considered a win for Eisenkot on Polymarket.
The Israeli betting website Polymarket shows a significant shift in favor of Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government, with bettors giving him a 62% chance. This represents a sharp decline for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose chances have fallen from 50% to just 28%. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who briefly led during past elections, now holds only a 6% chance, while Avigdor Lieberman is at a single percent.
Polymarket officials emphasize that these odds reflect the opinions of bettors, not a scientific poll or sample. They cited the recent Brazilian elections, where initial betting favored Bolsonaro but ultimately shifted to Lula as votes were counted. However, the current gap on Polymarket is substantial, around 30%, making a reversal less likely.
This betting trend contrasts with recent political polls, which have indicated a deadlock with no bloc securing the 61 seats needed for a majority coalition. Eisenkot is reportedly considering forming a minority government, even with fewer than 61 seats, with the aim of ousting Netanyahu and potentially holding new elections or expanding the coalition later. Under Polymarket's betting rules, such a scenario would count as a victory for Eisenkot, as he would serve as prime minister before December 31, 2026.
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