Betting Markets Flip Overnight, Favoring Netanyahu for Prime Minister
Translated & summarized from Bizportal by baba
Political betting markets on Polymarket have dramatically shifted, now favoring Benjamin Netanyahu to become Israel's next prime minister with a 46.5% implied probability, reversing a prior lead held by Gadi Eisenkot. The total trading volume on the prime minister market is nearing $74.6 million. The Likud party is also heavily favored to be the largest party, with a 98.7% chance. The markets suggest a low probability of any bloc reaching a 61-seat majority, indicating potential coalition challenges or new elections.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Benjamin Netanyahu is now favored to be prime minister at 46.5% on Polymarket, up from a previous deficit.
- Gadi Eisenkot, previously leading, now has a 25.8% chance on the prime minister betting market.
- The total trading volume on the prime minister market is approaching $74.6 million.
- The Likud party is given a 98.7% chance of emerging as the largest party.
- Betting markets assign only a 2.4% chance for any bloc to achieve a 61-seat majority.
Political betting markets have seen a dramatic overnight shift, with Benjamin Netanyahu now priced as the favorite to become the next prime minister. On the Polymarket platform, Netanyahu is currently trading at a 46.5% implied probability, a significant jump from his previous position. This contrasts sharply with Gadi Eisenkot, who held a clear lead in the days leading up to the vote but has fallen to 25.8%. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman are priced at 4.1% and 2.3% respectively.
The total trading volume on the prime minister market approaches $74.6 million, making it one of the largest political wagers outside the United States. The contract specifically for Netanyahu has generated approximately $25.8 million in trades. A similar reversal has occurred regarding the largest party, with the Likud now having a 98.7% chance of winning, dominating a market worth $13.9 million.
In a separate market for the Likud's seat count, the 25-29 mandate range, which previously had low odds, now holds a 93.5% probability after trading $6.2 million. This market had previously favored lower ranges and gave Eisenkot's "Yashar!" bloc the lead. The main market remains open, and according to Polymarket rules, the outcome is determined when a prime minister is officially appointed. Currently, no bloc is projected to reach the 61-seat majority needed for a coalition, with only a 2.4% chance assigned to any bloc achieving this, suggesting prolonged coalition negotiations or further elections.
The Israeli currency has already reacted to the vote count, with the dollar rising back to approximately 3.09 shekels. This market activity reflects a broader trend of increasing interest in prediction markets from venture capital and financial institutions, with leading companies experiencing significant valuation jumps. The article also notes that Israeli law prohibits gambling, and while Polymarket operates offshore and uses digital currency, the legal status for Israelis participating remains unclear. Market prices are expected to continue fluctuating with each step of the government formation process.
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