Full coverage· Politics· Updated 09:44

Pollsters Face Scrutiny After Election Forecasts Miss Mark

Israeli polling firms are facing intense scrutiny and criticism following the 26th Knesset elections, as significant discrepancies emerged between pre-election forecasts, exit polls, and the actual vote counts. Political commentator Amit Segal described the situation as a "Yom Kippur for most pollsters," arguing that the wide gap between predictions and results necessitates a complete re-evaluation of measurement methodologies.

3 newsrooms · 1 language · since 06:59

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What happened

01Israeli polling firms faced severe criticism after major discrepancies emerged between their forecasts and the 26th Knesset election results.
02With 51% of votes counted on Wednesday, the Netanyahu bloc was projected at 56 seats and the opposition at 49.
03Political commentator Amit Segal called the polling failures a "Yom Kippur for most pollsters" that discredited years of surveys.
04All Israeli pollsters failed to predict a major surge in Arab voter turnout, which is estimated to reach 15 seats.
05Segal praised pollsters Momo Filber and Tzuriel Sharon of Direct Polls for more accurately assessing Likud's strength and bloc allocations.
06Pre-election polls from Channel 12, Channel 13, and Kan 11 had all projected leads for the opposition bloc.
07U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that his endorsement of Netanyahu caused the shift in election trends.

With approximately 51% of the votes counted by Wednesday morning, the bloc supporting Benjamin Netanyahu was projected to win 56 seats, while the opposing bloc was projected to secure 49 seats. This outcome represents a stark reversal from exit polls released on Tuesday night, which had indicated an advantage for the opposition. According to Segal, there is no statistical way to explain how a six-seat advantage for the opposition could reverse in just four days, making years of polling look ridiculous.

A central failure identified by Segal was the inability of all pollsters, without exception, to predict a significant surge in Arab voter turnout, which is estimated to yield 15 seats. The polling failures also extended to misjudging public opinion on key issues such as the war, investigative committees, and hostage deals. Despite the widespread failures, Segal praised pollsters Momo Filber of Channel 14 and Tzuriel Sharon of Direct Polls on Channel 15 for more accurately identifying the Likud party's strength and bloc allocations throughout the campaign.

Summarized by baba from the reports of 3 newsrooms. Updated 12:23

Latest report: Walla. Read Walla’s original