Israeli TV Polls Missed Likud's Strength Ahead of Election
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Israeli TV election polls significantly underestimated the Likud party's strength, projecting around 20 seats while early results show 28. While Channel 14's poll was closer on Likud's numbers, all major polls misjudged bloc sizes. Gadi Eisenkot's party performed as predicted, but Naftali Bennett's saw a decline. Final results are pending the count of all ballots.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Israeli TV election polls significantly underestimated the Likud party, projecting 20 seats versus early results of 28.
- Channel 13's final poll predicted 20 seats for Likud, while early counts show 28.
- Channel 12 and Kan 11 polls predicted 21 and 20 seats for Likud respectively.
- Channel 14's poll by Shlomo Filber was closer, predicting 30 seats for Likud.
- The Netanyahu bloc is projected to have 55-57 seats, down from poll predictions of 62.
- Gadi Eisenkot's party is performing as predicted, while Naftali Bennett's party is weaker than polls indicated.
Three days before the election, major Israeli TV channels' polls predicted the Likud party would struggle, projecting it to win around 20 seats and fall short of a Knesset majority. However, as vote counting progresses, the reality at the ballot box appears significantly different, with Likud currently projected to secure 28 seats. This figure is nine seats higher than the final poll from Channel 13, and considerably more than the 21 seats predicted by Channel 12 and the 20 seats from Kan 11.
A predictive model from Dicta, which adjusts for early counting biases, also forecasts 28 seats for Likud. The three main channels' final polls, released last Friday, presented a remarkably similar picture, all underestimating the ruling party's support.
Channel 14's poll, conducted by Shlomo Filber, was closer to the emerging results, predicting 30 seats for Likud. However, even Filber's forecast was inaccurate regarding bloc sizes, predicting 62 seats for the Netanyahu bloc, while current counts place it at 57, with projections of 55. The other channels had predicted only 50 seats for this bloc.
The discrepancies extend beyond Likud. Gadi Eisenkot's Yisrael Beiteinu party, predicted to win 22-23 seats by the TV polls, is currently at 21, aligning closely with pollster predictions. In contrast, Naftali Bennett's Yamina party, expected to receive 14-15 seats, is currently at 11. Arab parties, projected at 14-16 seats, are currently at 16.
Vote counting is ongoing, and the results may still change as double-envelop envelopes are tallied. If current trends hold, the polling institutes of the three major TV channels will face scrutiny for presenting such a divergent picture from the actual vote.
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