Election Polls Show Wide Gaps Between Israeli TV Networks

Following the closing of polling stations, Israeli television channels released their election exit polls, presenting an initial snapshot of the political blocs and parties' chances of forming a government. While these figures are expected to change as analysis continues and final results are published, a comparison between the polls reveals significant discrepancies among the research institutes. The largest gap was observed between Channel 14 and Kan 11 and Channel 13, with a ten-seat difference in the assessment of the Netanyahu bloc's strength. Channel 14's poll suggested the bloc was close to the required majority with 60 seats, while the Eisenkot bloc received only 43 seats. In contrast, Kan 11 and Channel 13 showed the Eisenkot bloc leading with 53 seats, versus 50 for the Netanyahu bloc. Channels 12, 15, and 16 presented a more moderate middle ground, with the Netanyahu bloc receiving 52 to 55 seats and the Eisenkot bloc 49 to 51 seats.

Individual party numbers also showed considerable variation. The Likud party exhibited the greatest fluctuation, ranging from 24 seats on Channel 12 to a high of 30 seats on Channel 14, a six-seat difference. Israel Beiteinu's strength was estimated between four seats on Channel 14 and five on i24NEWS, to eight seats on Kan 11 and Channel 12. The two main opposition parties also showed a four-seat variance: Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" received between 19 seats on Channel 14 and 23 on Channel 13, while Naftali Bennett's "Beitech" ranged from 11 seats on Channel 14 to 15 on i24NEWS. Shas varied between 6 seats on Kan 11 and Channel 13 to 9 seats on Channel 14, while Ra'am remained stable at 7 seats across most channels, except Channel 16 where it fell to 5.

Despite the differences, the Likud emerged as the largest party in all six polls. Crucially, no bloc secured the 61 seats needed to form a government without unconventional measures or coalition shifts. All small lists, including those for Am Israel, the reservists, Zehlikha's Economic party, and Winter and Handel, remained below the electoral threshold.

The disparities in the polls are attributed to a combination of statistical challenges, differing research methodologies, and potential voter biases. Each poll samples a different set of polling stations, and statistical models vary. Minor deviations in just a few stations can shift seats, creating larger bloc differences in tight races. Channel 16 conducted the largest sample with 85 polling stations. Some channels, like i24NEWS and Channel 14, also incorporated telephone or online survey elements, which are sometimes seen as less reliable than traditional physical ballot box samples due to response biases and difficulties verifying actual voting.

Further complicating factors include "poll fakers", individuals who intentionally misrepresent their vote in sample polls, and the potential for boycotts of polls by specific voter bases who perceive a channel as hostile. Additionally, none of the polls included the votes from double envelopes, which are expected to be a significant number, approximately 600,000 votes, making the current picture incomplete.