Election Polls Show Divergent Results for Netanyahu Bloc
Translated & summarized from Behadrei Haredim by baba
Exit polls for Israel's 26th Knesset elections showed major discrepancies, with Channel 14 projecting 60 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, while other channels showed 50. The Likud party's projected seat count varied significantly between polls. Arab parties saw a notable increase in support across all projections. No bloc secured a majority in any poll, leaving government formation uncertain as real results were anticipated overnight.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Channel 14 poll projected 60 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, one seat short of a majority.
- Other major channels' polls showed Netanyahu's bloc with only 50 seats.
- Likud party's projected seat count varied from 30 in one poll to 24-25 in others.
- Arab parties collectively projected to win 17-18 seats, a significant increase.
- No exit poll granted any bloc the 61 seats needed for a majority government.
Exit polls released Tuesday evening following the closure of polling stations for the 26th Knesset elections revealed significant discrepancies in the projected seat distribution. While Channels 11, 12, and 13 indicated that Netanyahu's bloc would secure only 50 seats, a poll by Channel 14, conducted by Shlomo Philber, projected 60 seats for the bloc, just one seat short of the majority needed to form a government.
According to the Channel 14 poll, the Likud party would win 30 seats, Shas nine, United Torah Judaism seven, Otzma Yehudit seven, and Religious Zionism-Tkuma an additional seven. In contrast, the Yesh Atid party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, was projected to receive 19 seats, Naftali Bennett's Yamina 11, and the Democrats nine. Arab parties collectively were projected to win 17 seats.
The results from the other three channels presented a different picture. Channel 12's poll, conducted by Mano Geva, gave Netanyahu's bloc 50 seats, the "change bloc" 52, and Arab parties 18. Channel 13's poll showed Netanyahu's bloc with 50 seats, the change bloc with 53, and Arab parties with 17. Channel 11's poll mirrored this distribution.
The divergence was particularly noticeable in the projected strength of the Likud party, with Channel 14 showing it winning 30 seats compared to 24 or 25 in the other three polls. Differences were also observed in the projections for Haredi parties; Channel 14 predicted Shas and United Torah Judaism would win a combined 16 seats, while Channel 11 projected 12 and Channel 13 projected 13.
All polls consistently showed a significant increase in support for Arab parties, which collectively were expected to win between 17 and 18 seats, a substantial rise from the ten seats they held in the outgoing Knesset. Despite the variations, none of the exit polls granted Netanyahu's bloc the 61 seats required for a majority, nor did the change bloc achieve an independent majority, leaving the government formation process uncertain. Initial real results were expected to be released overnight, gradually clarifying which projections were closest to the actual outcome.
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