Pollsters' Yom Kippur: Analyst Slams Biased Election Surveys
Translated & summarized from Kikar HaShabbat by baba
Political commentator Amit Segal criticized Israeli pollsters for significant inaccuracies in predicting the 26th Knesset election results. Partial vote counts show a Netanyahu bloc leading with 56 seats, contrary to exit polls favoring the opposition. Segal highlighted failures in predicting Arab voter turnout and public opinion on key issues, though he praised two pollsters for their accuracy. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed his endorsement of Netanyahu caused the shift.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollsters' election predictions were widely inaccurate, showing a dramatic reversal from exit polls to partial vote counts.
- Political commentator Amit Segal called the situation a "Yom Kippur for most pollsters."
- Partial results indicate a Netanyahu bloc winning 56 seats, while the opposition bloc is projected at 49.
- Pollsters failed to accurately predict the surge in Arab voter turnout, estimated at 15 seats.
- U.S. President Donald Trump claimed his endorsement of Netanyahu led to the shift in election trends.
Political commentator Amit Segal described the current situation as a "Yom Kippur for most pollsters," explaining the vast discrepancy between pre-election survey predictions and the emerging results of the 26th Knesset elections. As of Wednesday morning, with approximately 51% of votes counted, the bloc supporting Netanyahu was projected to win 56 seats, while the opposing bloc was projected to secure only 49 seats. This outcome is a stark reversal from exit polls released Tuesday night, which had indicated an advantage for the opposing bloc.
Segal criticized the polls, stating, "There is no statistical way to explain a 6-seat advantage for the opposition reversing in 4 days." He added that this failure casts "ridicule" on "four years of polls that presented us with a picture of reality that, in retrospect, turned out not to match reality at all." The commentator emphasized that the polling failure extended beyond seat projections to public opinion on key issues, including "the war, investigative committees, hostage deals, and more."
A central failure, according to Segal, was the inability of "all pollsters without exception" to identify the significant surge in Arab voter turnout. The partial count showed Arab parties potentially winning 15 seats, a figure that surprised most pollsters. While many went to sleep expecting an opposition victory, the dramatic shift in vote counting overnight pointed towards a Netanyahu-led government.
However, Segal acknowledged two pollsters, Momo Filber on Channel 14 and Tzuriel Sharon on Channel 15, for accurately identifying the Likud party's strength over time. He credited Sharon and his team at Direct Polls for being the closest to identifying the bloc sizes. Filber himself had predicted a right-wing bloc victory of 61-64 seats two weeks prior, asserting that "400,000 Likud voters did not disappear."
U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently endorsed Netanyahu, claimed on Wednesday that his support was instrumental in the reversal. A post on his Truth Social account stated, "When President Trump expressed support for Bibi Netanyahu, the whole trend reversed." Vote counting is ongoing, with the final results expected later in the day. Regardless of the final outcome, these elections are poised to be remembered not only for their results but also as a significant professional failure for Israeli polling firms.
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