News 12 Commentator Admits Election Poll Failures, Praises Channel 14
Translated & summarized from Ice by baba
Political commentator Amit Segal criticized election pollsters for significant forecast errors, calling it "Yom Kippur for most pollsters." He noted a dramatic, statistically inexplicable shift in support and a failure to predict voting patterns in Arab society. Segal did, however, praise pollsters Momo Filber and Tzuriel Sharon for more accurate readings of the Likud party's strength and bloc sizes.
The story in 6 lines · by baba
- Political commentator Amit Segal criticized election pollsters for significant forecast errors.
- Segal described the widespread polling failures as "Yom Kippur for most pollsters."
- He highlighted a dramatic, statistically inexplicable shift in support within days.
- Segal noted pollsters' failure to identify voting patterns in Arab society.
- He praised pollsters Momo Filber and Tzuriel Sharon for more accurate readings.
- Segal plans to analyze the sampling methods that led to the discrepancies.
Political commentator Amit Segal launched a sharp attack on pollsters following significant discrepancies between pre-election forecasts and the actual results. Segal described the situation as "Yom Kippur for most pollsters," highlighting a dramatic shift in support within days that he believes cannot be statistically explained. He argued that the results necessitate a re-evaluation of public opinion as presented over the past four years, stating that previous polls did not accurately reflect reality regarding mandates, public stances on the war, investigative committees, and hostage deals.
Segal specifically pointed to the Arab society's voting patterns as a major area where pollsters failed, noting that "all pollsters without exception failed to identify the Arab surge." However, amidst his criticism of the polling industry, Segal also acknowledged two individuals he believes accurately gauged the strength of the Likud party: Momo Filber of Channel 14 and Tzuriel Sharon of Channel 15, stating they "read the map more accurately."
He further commended Tzuriel Sharon and his team at Direct Polls for being the closest in estimating the size of the political blocs. Segal indicated that the discussion about the polling failures is far from over, and he intends to further analyze the sampling methods used to understand how these discrepancies occurred.
