Pollsters Criticized for Missing Arab Voter Surge in Elections
Translated & summarized from Arutz Sheva by baba
News commentator Amit Segal heavily criticized Israeli pollsters for failing to predict the election results, particularly the surge in Arab voter turnout. He argued that the significant gap between poll predictions and the final outcome, including a six-mandate swing, questions the reliability of polls over the last four years. Segal did, however, commend two pollsters for accurately gauging the Likud party's strength.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Pollsters are criticized for failing to predict the election results and a surge in Arab voter turnout.
- Commentator Amit Segal called the situation a "Yom Kippur for most pollsters."
- Segal stated there's no statistical way to explain a six-mandate swing in four days.
- The results cast doubt on public opinion surveys from the past four years.
- Two pollsters, Shlomo Philber and Tzuriel Sharon, were praised for accurately tracking Likud's strength.
News commentator Amit Segal has sharply criticized polling firms following the 26th Knesset elections, arguing that the significant discrepancy between pre-election predictions and the actual results raises serious questions about the reliability of polls. Segal stated that the polls' failure to anticipate the opposition's six-mandate lead, which then reversed, is inexplicable through normal public opinion fluctuations. He described the situation as a "Yom Kippur for most pollsters," referring to a day of atonement and reckoning.
Segal's critique extends beyond the immediate election, suggesting that the results cast doubt on public opinion surveys conducted over the past four years. He contends that these polls have presented a distorted reality that did not align with the actual situation, making the past four years of polling appear "ridiculous."
The commentator highlighted that the polling failures were not limited to estimating party strength but also extended to measuring public sentiment on key issues such as the war, the establishment of inquiry committees, hostage release deals, and other significant matters.
A central point of Segal's criticism is the failure of all polling firms to identify the substantial increase in voter turnout within the Arab community. "All pollsters without exception failed to identify the Arab surge," he asserted.
Despite his broad criticism, Segal acknowledged two pollsters, Shlomo Philber of Channel 14 and Tzuriel Sharon of Channel 15, for accurately identifying the Likud party's strength over time. He noted that Sharon and his team at Direct Polls were the closest to accurately identifying the bloc sizes.
