Exit Polls Misjudged Election Results, Here's Why
Translated & summarized from Globes by baba
Exit polls on election night projected a lead for the "change bloc," but final results showed Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc securing a significant advantage. Initial projections indicated 53 mandates for the opposition, while later counts showed Netanyahu's bloc with 56 mandates. Factors contributing to the discrepancy include voter non-participation, the separate counting of a large number of double-enveloped ballots, and incomplete vote tallies from certain areas.
The story in 5 lines · by baba
- Exit polls initially showed a lead for the "change bloc," but final results favored Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc.
- Early projections gave the change bloc 53 mandates, while later counts showed Netanyahu's bloc with 56.
- Discrepancies are attributed to voter non-participation and differing votes in mock ballot boxes.
- A large number of double-enveloped ballots, counted separately, significantly impacted the final results.
- Incomplete vote counts from some cities also contributed to the initial polling inaccuracies.
Exit polls released at 10 PM on election night presented a significantly different picture than the final results, with initial projections showing a lead for the "change bloc" over Prime Minister Netanyahu's bloc. News 13's first poll indicated 53 mandates for the change bloc versus 50 for Netanyahu's. Subsequent updates showed a 51-51 tie on Kan 11, and a 52-50 lead for the change bloc on News 13 and News 12.
However, as vote counting progressed, the reality shifted dramatically. With approximately 60% of votes tallied, Netanyahu's bloc had secured 56 mandates compared to 48 for the change bloc. By 11 AM, with about 70% of votes counted, the figures were 54 mandates for Netanyahu's bloc and 47 for the change bloc, with Ra'am and the Joint List receiving 19 mandates combined. This reversal turned an opposition lead in the polls into a clear advantage for Netanyahu's coalition.
The article explains that exit polls, unlike regular polls, survey voters after they have cast their ballots using mock ballot boxes and tablets to anonymously reconstruct their vote. These polls are larger than standard surveys and do not need to predict turnout. Research institutes then weight the data based on polling station characteristics, past voting patterns, and demographic group sizes.
Several factors are cited by sources in the polling industry for the discrepancy. Firstly, not everyone approached participates, and some respondents may vote differently in the mock ballot box than they did in the actual election. Secondly, the unprecedented number of double-enveloped ballots, estimated at up to 650,000, are counted separately and were not directly measured by the exit poll stations. Avigdor Lieberman, chairman of Yisrael Beiteinu, estimated these ballots could represent 14-15 mandates.
Thirdly, the vote count itself was incomplete, with results from entire cities yet to be incorporated. Consequently, it remains unclear how much of the initial gap will persist. The Central Elections Committee stated it is too early to assess the impact of the double-enveloped ballots, with their counting expected to conclude the following evening.
