Pollster: Ofer Winter's Party Could Sway Election Outcome

Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research and pollster for Maariv and Walla, discussed recent poll discrepancies and the potential impact of Ofer Winter's new party, Am Israel Chai, on the political landscape. Speaking on 103fm radio, Lazar explained that the difference between his poll and one from Channel 13 hinges on whether Winter's party crosses the electoral threshold. "In yesterday's case, everything hinges on one party: Ofer Winter's Am Israel Chai. In our poll, Winter does not pass the electoral threshold, but in Channel 13's poll, it did," Lazar stated. He added that if Winter's estimated four seats were added to the current coalition's 49 seats, the result would be the same.

Lazar described Winter's party as "shaky," even when it clears the threshold. "Even when he passes the electoral threshold with four seats, it's precarious, he could also drop, he is shaky," he said. Lazar suggested that Winter's political statements, such as his declaration to only align with Prime Minister Netanyahu, could alienate potential voters. "Statements of this kind can cause his supporters to waver. When he declared he would only go with Netanyahu, he dropped to four seats. He has no clear message."

With the deadline for list submissions approaching, Lazar anticipates rapid shifts in the polls. "You have to decide if you are going with this list or another. We are in the final stretch, so I estimate we will see fluctuations in the polls these days," he noted.

Regarding the joint list of Moshe Feiglin's Zehut party and the Religious Zionism party, Lazar was skeptical of Feiglin's prediction of a double-digit seat count. "Blessed is the believer, and I personally wish him to get as many seats as possible, but right now, on a good day, they might reach six seats," he estimated. However, Lazar acknowledged that the union could benefit Religious Zionism by attracting new voters. "He added an audience to Smotrich, and this is a correct connection." Lazar also observed that some voters have shifted to Otzma Yehudit or the Likud, and the rise of the united Smotrich-Feiglin list has come partly at the expense of Winter's party.

Concerning a potential merger between Gadi Eisenkot's Yishai! party and those of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, Lazar cited past analyses of political unions showing that "the whole is often less than the sum of its parts." Nevertheless, he noted a significant advantage for a unified list: becoming the largest party, potentially influencing who the president tasks with forming a government. However, he cautioned that such a move carries risks, as "there is a danger that the other bloc will reach a significant number, and then you have lost your advantage."