New Poll Shows Ofer Winter's Party Weakens Netanyahu and Ben-Gvir

A new poll conducted by Kantar for Kan News indicates that the "Am Israel" party, led by Ofer Winter, would surpass the electoral threshold with four seats if elections were held today. However, the party's entry into the political arena appears to weaken both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party.

The survey also shows the Religious Zionism party securing five seats. In a hypothetical election scenario, the "Yashar!" party would emerge as the largest with 24 mandates, followed by Likud with 21, and the "Achdut" party led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid with 14 seats.

Other parties' projected seat counts include Democrats with 9, Yisrael Beiteinu with 8, United Torah Judaism with 8, the Joint List with 8, Otzma Yehudit with 7, Shas with 7, Religious Zionism with 5, Ra'am with 4, and Am Israel with 4.

The poll suggests that a potential union between Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir would result in their combined party receiving only 10 seats, a decrease from the 12 they might achieve running separately. In this scenario, Winter's party would gain an additional seat, reaching five mandates. Conversely, if Smotrich were to unite with Moshe Feiglin's party, Religious Zionism would grow to 7 seats, matching Ben-Gvir's potential numbers, while Winter's party would fall below the electoral threshold.

The poll also analyzed the political blocs, showing the anti-Netanyahu bloc slightly weakened, dropping to 55 seats from 57 in the previous poll. Netanyahu's bloc gained one seat, rising from 51 to 52. Arab parties collectively increased their mandate count to 13, attributed to the strengthening of the Joint List.

In terms of leadership suitability, Netanyahu marginally leads Bennett, with 37% of respondents favoring Netanyahu compared to 36% for Bennett. Benny Gantz's party, along with those of Gilad Erdan and Chili Tropper, are projected to remain below the electoral threshold in all tested scenarios.